Herbert

[exploited17]

Currently I see Herbert at 2nd behind Josh Allen to win the MVP odds wise
Interestingly enough the Charger are over/uner 10.5 wins and you pay juice if you want the under

NO MVP QB since 1990 has been on a team with less than 11 wins and most have been at 12 or higher

Any take away from this?
Just thought it was interesting as Herbert is the new it QB that has not accomplished anything yet

 

[chrishansen]

The fact they are notorious for not punting and going for 4th Downs can help as funny as that sounds. Aggressive offense better stats potential. WR core is pretty legit. In a Division points are probably scored. Has good legs will run a decent bit.

DL interior and 2nd level interior are weakness. Back end and Edge looks real solid. Defense may be leaky and ensure more aggressive offense and points needed to be scored. Plus for Herbert.

MVP is going QB 9/10 times. Personally I like Chargers to differentiate the AFC West winner this year. Still very High on KC (Hill will not be that big of a loss imo) but CB May be an area of concern. AFC west is going to be a log Jam. So getting 12-13 wins may be an issue. I’d say 11-6 12-5 at best if a team can separate and I’d lean LAC or KC as possible 12-5 team

Palmer Guyton Williams Allen Everett a A- to B+ group as a whole. RB as a group a little weak. Eckler provides good passing stats. No dominant run game providing Herbert more potential to unload or be forced to unload.

I’d look at NFL offense POY Justin Jefferson. Opened 40-1 down to 25-1 range last I saw. . Sometimes a QB can win this but usually going to the RB WR spot. JJ works inside and out. Has Rams O cord now as a coach. He will look to feed his young stud probably like Kupp. Last years POY.

JJ has the ability and scheme to get to $1800-1900 yards. 140+ catches and 16-18 TDs. He has already come close to that last year. Don’t knock Cousin too quick. He is steady. Can do enough. He was around 38-10 Td/int last year I believe.

If they work JJ a good bit in slot and with his deep threat, it’s possible he can break 2000 yards. 17 games now also. And voters love record breakers on this award. Try and find a record breaker guy rushing yards receiver yards total yards TDs or reception yards. Voters jizz over this and you see winners.

O’connel The coach has a team that can win 11-13 games. Take 1st seed and win division. GB is still very very good. Defense will be much better and legit. Adams is big loss but they will be fine. The area of concern should be O line in GB. They are ripe in the picking to not win North. Rookie coach gets 12-13 wins and coach of year 16-1 not bad value.

NFL MVP QB is going to need a really good record. About 5k yards 40+ TD and low INT. All doable for Herbert.

A real long shot for OPOY Swift Lions. With His catching ability and running ability (if they feed him more) behind imo a Top 5 oline easily, on a weak Defense with check down Goff, Marshall Faulk type Numbers is doable. I know, big words, not saying it’s apples to apples here. But explosive, catches a ton of balls, can pile up TDs. 1200 yards 800-1000 yards 17-22 Total TD is achievable. That’s close to 3x Faulk stats who won. Playing from behind is where Swift excelled also. Padding stats.

He has yet to play all 17 games. He stays healthy year 3 playing 17 games behind that line on a team very likely to be involved in high score games. Lots of room to pile up big stats.

Value guys with legit cases OPOY
Swift 60-1
Mixon 60-1 (same boat Swift way more Rush yard Upside)
Hurts 40-1 (possibly 1k rush, 3500 pass, shit ton TDs)

Herbert or Allen have Rush with pass upside in OPOY also. Better odds than MVP also.

 

[chrishansen]

Most Rush Yards Mixon good value. He could literally smash this year given the situation and attention to Burrows and company. Big body power guy with speed. Big upgrade to O line.

Mixon most Rush TD. Same situation

Value is their for mixon in few categories

Exact Division
Min Det GB Chi 50-1
Min GB Det Chi 7-1
Bears finish 4th -120
Bears under 6.5 my best Season prop was +100. Been hammered since. This is a bad bad team imo. GB maybe slips value to MIn and Det.

LAC KC LV Den 20-1
Mia buff NYJ Ne 40-1
Mia NYJ buff Ne 100-1
NYJ Mia buff Ne 125-1
NYJ buf mia Ne 80-1
Bills are not the world beaters we think. Great team but RB Oline CB can be leaky. OC gone, schedule much harder. Never know. See Bengals last year.

Best Regular season record likely a 13-4 team
Eagles 22-1
Vikings 40-1

It’s the NFL, never know but always some team coming out of nowhere.

Offense rookie of year
B. Hall Jets 10-1 (J.Taylor comp in my books skill/Speed/Size)
A. Pierce Colts 50-1 (Big down field target with great speed and great hands. Colts will need options don’t have many)

Regular season wins
Bears under 6.5 -150 now no more +100
Panthers over 7.5 +180 (8 not out question)
Bengals over 9.5 -130
Vikings over 9.5 +110
Patriots under 8.5 -110
Jets over 6.5 +130
Eagles over 10.5 +145

Just tossing out some stuff if you care to ponder and don’t mind bigger odds with possible high upside.

 

[CoolBreeze22]

Min Detroit GB Chi at 50-1

Should Rodgers miss a month or two due to injury I'd imagine that bet would certainly be in play.

 

[CoolBreeze22]

If the Bears get a top 5 pick it will be interesting to see how the season plays out and if they'll be looking to move on from Fields.

 

[chrishansen]

Min Detroit GB Chi at 50-1

Should Rodgers miss a month or two due to injury I'd imagine that bet would certainly be in play.

Never know. No harm in taking stabs at values like this here and there. A 6 and 7 win team 2018 2019. Something could go south who knows. Bears have no upside imo to be a 7-9 win team. A bad packers can still be a 7-9 win team. Lions can be a 7-9 win team especially if pack and bears are down.

 

[HacheMan]

Good stuff in here

Rushing title will go to Taylor or Henry

Nobody else will challenge

I already posted somewhere to take BOTH of them at +500

One will end and you are almost guaranteed a nice profit

 

[chrishansen]

If the Bears get a top 5 pick it will be interesting to see how the season plays out and if they'll be looking to move on from Fields.

Maybe Fields proves he is a stud. They aren’t giving him much to work with. Personally, I never even look at drafting a Ohio St QB. I could care less what stats say. Just like a left handed QB. Not bothering what people say, it’s an automatic no draft. At some point teams need to look back and question why some colleges (Ohio State) have these great QBs but are NFL worthless.

If they get a top 1-3 pick Stroud now becomes a no option. Can’t take b2b OSU QB in 3 year gap. Too much media heat etc. Petty probably goes 1 due to Bama Over OSU QB’s. Bama QB’s are no drafts for me also. Just too easy to make all players look good when playing with great players all around them. Not sold on Jones or Hurts or Tua. Maybe they prove me wrong. Petty probably only Bama QB that slightly intrigues me. But as super talented as all these Bama teams are, Stabler Starr Naemith are the only Bama QB to do anything. That was 60 years ago.

Levi the Kentucky QB is one to keep an eye on. He may make draft noise.

If I’m the bears and get top pick I sell the house and trade. Dig my grave with Fields see what I got. They invested in him trading up for him, run with it or fire the GM who traded for him. Too many holes to fill. WR Oline. Defense falling pieces. Team needs to target a 2024 Run year.

 

[chrishansen]

Good stuff in here

Rushing title will go to Taylor or Henry

Nobody else will challenge

I already posted somewhere to take BOTH of them at +500

One will end and you are almost guaranteed a nice profit

Henry I worry they drop his load. O line just fine imo. Same with colts. But Titans lacking threats other places and teams not worried about Tanny. Henry may not see volume and production imo. Plus they saw missed time past two years and very possibly keep him lighter work load. They gave him the rock 400 times 2020. And he was well ahead another 400 last year at Over 200+. They may dial him back this year. Especially with production they got at RB without him.

Taylor is a freak. Colts Line lost a bit but still look real good. I doubt they take gas off Taylor. They probably let him rip it.

NFL always has surprises. RB are most prone to not meet expectations. Also get banged up miss time and work load. Nobody will be shocked if Taylor Henry Chubb Cook CMC Mixon Harris etc go down with a big injury. Happens every year at RB.

Chubb is in play if you trust 17 games. Least worked back per production out there. Under 220 carry’s past two years. Still pushing 5.5 per carry and almost 1400. Great O line. Watson comes back opens doors. But no Watson for several games then I’d imagine they feed him heavily early. If they feed Chubb 320-340 times 2,000+ is in play.

Sweet spot on RB yards leader is 5.5 YPC 350+ toats

You gotta find a guy you believe gets 300+ at least. And a guy who can average over 5 ypc. There isn’t but a handful that can if you look close. Taylor definitely fits the build. Henry also if they give him a heavy load.

A 5.3-5.5 ypc and Possible heavy worked type skill set back that has the potential

Taylor
Henry
Mixon
Harris
Chubb
Dillon GB (if Jones were to get hurt before season)

Taylor has the clearest path imo. Off Speed Size Durability O line Opportunity and Scheme. Can’t knock anything 5-1 or better for Taylor. Imo ( huge pound the table for Taylor rd 1 draft) real draft that is, but B Hall from Iowa st is a kid I compt very similar to Taylor. Not going to lead league in rushing but offense rook year potential.

Definitely a carrot and good value out there for 4-5 guys if looking for higher upside plays.

Taylor Rush leader 5-1 very solid bet with high probability. Nice bet Hache! GL

 

[Avocado33]

Currently I see Herbert at 2nd behind Josh Allen to win the MVP odds wise
Interestingly enough the Charger are over/uner 10.5 wins and you pay juice if you want the under

NO MVP QB since 1990 has been on a team with less than 11 wins and most have been at 12 or higher

Any take away from this?
Just thought it was interesting as Herbert is the new it QB that has not accomplished anything yet

There doesn't seem like much value there given the tough division

He's a top 6-8 QB. Very talented, but young and hasn't proven much in terms of team success

Decent chance the Chargers miss the playoffs again. They have issues on their defense. Maybe that forces them into shootouts and bloats Herbert's stats a bit, but hard to justify him being 2nd in MVP considering he has to check the team success box as well

 

[Avocado33]

Burrow is the guy you take the shot with in the AFC for MVP. Team is gonna be better, should win more games in the regular season.

Guy led the league in YPA and completion % with a bad offensive line. The line is gonna be better; they should put up some ridiculous numbers this year

 

[chrishansen]

Burrow is the guy you take the shot with in the AFC for MVP. Team is gonna be better, should win more games in the regular season.

Guy led the league in YPA and completion % with a bad offensive line. The line is gonna be better; they should put up some ridiculous numbers this year

Better value 12-1 Joe B. Herbs 9-1

Bengals interior D 1st 2nd level same issues as LAC. Opening doors more point scoring games. Joe has an absolute unit for WR. A+ imo vs A-B+ lac crew. Boyd Tee Chase about as good as it gets 123 options.

Favor the super aggressive lac play calling over Cin. Mixon with upgrade o line may Bell cow huge numbers. However, it could benefit Joe. But Cin should have a slightly better shot at 12-13 win season and 1-2 seed. Tuff sledding 1-4 out in afc west. But voters will value The QB who wins that division if they win 12-13 games. Especially if it dethroned Pat and KC. Lac has been a problem for KC past two years.

Still talent out in NFC QB/Teams that whoever goes off in AFC will have to navigate past. Brady really should Won it last year with that record and stats.

Eye a team schedule wise you favor a hot start if looking for value after 4-5 weeks. Always grab little action on guys who slip first few weeks.

Joe B solid option for sure. Bengals definitely have 12-13 win upside and the offense talent for Joe B post huge numbers

 

[REDEYE]

I'd take Herbert over any QB in the NFL right now. Doubt I'd wager on the 10/1 MVP though. Missed the boat at 14/1 , which had value. I got LAC winning the division at +425. Got it early.
Have Cousins at 75/1 long shot , only MVP bet so far.
Grabbed the Bears under 6 1/2 also @ -140.
Added Saints +375 division and Saints +135 to make the playoffs this week.
Have added these wagers thruout the off-season
Rams SB 15/1
LAC SB 16/1
Steelers SB 100/1
Indy SB 30/1
Rams NFC 5/1
Green Bay NFC +550
Steelers AFC 60/1
Indy AFC 14/1
Indy division +125
Steelers division 15/1
Rams division +150
Indy ov 9 1/2 -120
LAC ov 10-105
Washington ov 7 1/2 +110
Steelers ov 7 1/2 +105
Rams ov 10 1/2 +105
Bengals miss playoffs +125

Be in Vegas in a couple of weeks to add more

 

[exploited17]

Lets see if this guys can sack up and lead his team to a comeback victory
Guys gotta start winning

 

[Avocado33]

Lets see if this guys can sack up and lead his team to a comeback victory
Guys gotta start winning

They should win this game. The Browns are not good lol

 

[exploited17]

Solid comeback
They needed that

 

[Avocado33]

Solid comeback
They needed that

Ekeler drove em today

 

[exploited17]

Ekeler drove em today

Part of being a winner and leader as a QB is understanding when you have to win it yourself and when you let the team or another player do their thing

 

[REDEYE]

Ekeler drove em today

You don't give any other QB credit other than Brady and Burrow do you ?

 

[REDEYE]

Not sure what Staley was thinking going for it on 4th down....